Refining Sugar Production Forecasts: Analyzing Forecasting Techniques for Operational Precision Prakiraan Produksi Gula Penyulingan: Menganalisis Teknik Peramalan untuk Ketepatan Operasional
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Published:
Mar 18, 2024
Keywords:
Forecasting, Moving Average, Sugar Production
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Abstract
This study compares the efficacy of moving averages and double exponential smoothing (Holt's method) in predicting sugar production, using historical data. Results reveal that double exponential smoothing outperforms moving averages, offering more accurate forecasts, particularly in contexts requiring responsiveness to data trends. These findings hold significant implications for enhancing operational efficiency and readiness in the sugar industry, guiding maintenance scheduling and production target achievement.
Highlights:
- Double exponential smoothing (Holt's method) surpasses moving averages in accuracy.
- Importance of forecasting in operational efficiency and maintenance scheduling.
- Applicability of forecasting techniques in the sugar industry context.
Keywords: Forecasting, Moving Average, Sugar Production
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How to Cite
[1]
M. F. Andreyanto and H. C. Wahyuni, “Refining Sugar Production Forecasts: Analyzing Forecasting Techniques for Operational Precision”, PELS, vol. 7, pp. 620-627, Mar. 2024.
Section
Industrial Engineering
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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[3] H. C. Wahyuni and S. Setiawan, "Implementasi Metode Objective Matrix (OMAX) Untuk Pengukuran Produktivitas Pada PT.ABC," PROZIMA (Productivity, Optim. Manuf. Syst. Eng., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 17–21, 2017.
[4] R. Awaluddin, R. Fauzi, and D. Harjadi, "Perbandingan Penerapan Metode Peramalan Guna Mengoptimalkan Penjualan (Studi Kasus Pada Konveksi Astaprint Kabupaten Majalengka)," J. Bisnisman Ris. Bisnis dan Manaj., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 12–18, 2021.
[5] R. Ariyanto, D. Puspitasari, and F. Ericawati, "Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Produksi Tanaman Pangan," J. Inform. Polinema, vol. 4, no. 1, p. 57, 2017.
[6] E. Siswanto, E. Satria Wibawa, and Z. Mustofa, "Implementasi Aplikasi Sistem Peramalan Persedian Barang Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average Berbasis Web," Elkom J. Elektron. dan Komput., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 224–233, 2021.
[7] S. Raihan, E. Sanggala, and M. A. Bisma, "Peramalan Kebutuhan Footwear di PT XYZ Osl Idn Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Holt dengan Genetic Algorithm ( One Point Crossover & One Point Mutation ) Sebagai Parameter Nilai Alpha dan Beta," vol. 7, pp. 27897–27907, 2023.
[8] C. V. Hudiyanti, F. A. Bachtiar, and B. D. Setiawan, "Perbandingan Double Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Jumlah Kedatangan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Bandara Ngurah Rai," J. Pengemb. Teknol. Inf. dan Ilmu Komput., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 2667–2672, 2019.
[9] R. Y. Hayuningtyas and R. Sari, "Aplikasi Peramalan Alat Kesehatan Menggunakan Single Moving Average," J. Infortech, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 40–45, 2021.
[10] A. Putrasyah and Sukemi, "Perhitungan Peramalan Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Single Moving Average," Annu. Res. Semin., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 237–241, 2019.
[11] M. A. Maricar, "Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ," J. Sist. Dan Inform., vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 36–45, 2019.
[12] N. Hudaningsih, S. Firda Utami, and W. A. Abdul Jabbar, "Perbandingan Peramalan Penjualan Produk Aknil Pt.Sunthi Sepurimengguanakan Metode Single Moving Average Dan Single Exponential Smooting," J. Inform. Teknol. dan Sains, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 15–22, 2020.