Comparison of Multiple Linear Regression and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing in the Gold Jewelry Pricing Prediction
Perbandingan Penerapan Regresi Linear Berganda Dan Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Pada Prediksi Harga Emas Perhiasan
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(1) * Wirawan Khairul Majid
Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya
Indonesia
(2) Intan Dzikria Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya
Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
One important factor in someone's decision to purchase gold jewelry is the price factor. However, the price of gold jewelry varies from store to store. Therefore, a gold jewelry price forecasting system is needed to assist customers in determining the right time to buy gold jewelry. This study aims to develop a gold jewelry prediction system by comparing two methods: multiple linear regression and Holt-Winter exponential smoothing. These two methods were chosen because the researcher wants to compare which method is more accurate in predicting the price of gold jewelry. The second reason is that both multiple linear regression and Holt-Winter exponential smoothing methods share similarities in using three variables. The three variables in multiple linear regression include period (X1), profit (X2), and price (Y), while the variables in the Holt-Winter exponential smoothing method include level, trend, and season.
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References
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[2] A. Suwandi, “Prediksi Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average,” JiTEKH, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 32–36, 2020, doi: 10.35447/jitekh.v8i1.194.
[3] D. P. Anggraeni, D. Rosadi, H. Hermansah, and A. A. Rizal, “Prediksi Harga Emas Dunia di Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Model ARIMA,” J. Apl. Stat. Komputasi Stat., vol. 12, no. 1, p. 71, 2020, doi: 10.34123/jurnalasks.v12i1.264.
[4] A. N. Febriyanti and N. A. K. Rifai, “Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters untuk Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Pulau Jawa,” Bandung Conf. Ser. Stat., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 152–158, 2022, doi: 10.29313/bcss.v2i2.3560.
[5] M. Masruroh and K. F. Mauladi, “Penerapan Metode Regresi Linear Berganda Dalam Sistem Prediksi Nilai Ujian Nasional Siswa Smp,” J. Tek., vol. 12, no. 1, p. 1, 2020, doi: 10.30736/jt.v12i1.393.
[6] A. Syahputra, “IMPLEMENTASI METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA APLIKASI PREDIKSI HARGA EMAS Dosen Pendidikan Vokasional Teknik Mesin,” J. Teknol. Terap. Sains, vol. 1, no.1, p. 12, 2020.
[7] E. Dewi, S. Mulyani, F. Mulady, D. Ramadhan, A. Ariyantono, and D. Ramdani, “Estimasi Harga Jual Mobil Bekas Menggunakan Metode Regresi Linier Berganda,” e-Jurnal JUSITI (Jurnal Sist. Inf. dan Teknol. Informasi), vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 2020, doi: 10.36774/jusiti.v9i1.649.
[8] A. Basit, “Pengaruh Harga Emas Dan Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode 2016-2019,” REVENUE J. Manaj. Bisnis Islam, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 73–82, 2020, doi: 10.24042/revenue.v1i2.6073.
[9] L. A. Krisworo, “Peramalan dan Visualisasi Data Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api Indonesia di Pulau Jawa dengan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing,” Ilmiah, Artik. Informasi, Fak. Teknol. Ocsa, Pratyaksa Saian, Nugraha Stud. Progr. Inform. Tek. Informasi, Fak. Teknol. Kristen, Univ. Wacana, Satya, no. 672016270, 2020.
[10] Nindian Puspa Dewi, “Implementasi Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan,” Digit. Zo. J. Teknol. Inf. dan Komun., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 223–236, 2020, doi: 10.31849/digitalzone.v11i2.4797.
[11] L. J. Sinay, T. Pentury, and D. Anakotta, “Peramalan Curah Hujan Di Kota Ambon Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing,” BAREKENG J. Ilmu Mat. dan Terap., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 101–108, 2017, doi: 10.30598/barekengvol11iss2pp101-108.
[12] I. R. Akolo, “Perbandingan Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Dan Arima Pada Peramalan Produksi Padi Di Provinsi Gorontalo,” J. Technopreneur, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 20–26, 2019, doi: 10.30869/jtech.v7i1.314.
[13] A. H. Krisdianto, Rais, N. Fiskia, and H. Sain, “Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Padi di Sulawesi Tengah Menggunakan Analisis Algoritma FBprophet,” J. Ilm. Mat. Dan Terap., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 2014–214, 2022, doi: 10.22487/2540766x.2022.v19.i2.16062.
[14] C. M. J. Wando and I. Dzikria, “Delivery Route Estimation on a Web-based restaurant delivery system using Greedy Algorithm,” JITCS J. Inf. Technol. Cyber Secur., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 16–29, 2023.
[15] A. A. Wahid, “Analisis Metode Waterfall Untuk Pengembangan Sistem Informasi,” J. Ilmu-ilmu Inform. dan Manaj. STMIK, no. November, pp. 1–5, 2020.
[16] F. N. Salamah, U., & Khasanah, “Pengujian Sistem Informasi Penjualan Undangan Pernikahan Online Berbasis Web Menggunakan Black Box Testing,” Inf. Manag. Educ. Prof., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 35–46, 2017.
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Published
2023-07-07
How to Cite
[1]
W. K. Majid and I. Dzikria, “Comparison of Multiple Linear Regression and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing in the Gold Jewelry Pricing Prediction”, PELS, vol. 4, Jul. 2023.
Section
Computer Science
Copyright (c) 2023 Wirawan Khairul Majid, Intan Dzikria
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
